labor A shocking poll shows that if there is a general election tomorrow, it will win a majority of 314 seats in the House of Representatives.
That would more than double Labor’s current number of MPs, and give the Tories a more humiliating defeat than they had in 1997.
The model of the pollster is that not only will the Conservative Party be wiped out in the north of England, London and southwest.
Even Rishi Snak showed that he would lose the Richmond constituency in Yorkshire, which had been held by the Conservatives since 1910.
The model was unveiled just three years after Boris Johnson celebrated the Conservative Party’s 80-seat majority in the 2019 general election.
However, pollsters have cautioned against the findings of market research firm Savanta. This is the company’s first forecast since the Labor Party meeting in September.
They suggested that the actual outcome “could change significantly” by the general election.
Conservative MPs fearing losing their seats will also be encouraged by another survey (conducted by Deltapoll) that showed the Tories had cut Labor’s lead to 13 percentage points.
The poll shows Conservatives up four points to 32% and Labor down three points to 45%, compared to the last poll last week.
Labor would win a majority of 314 seats in the House of Commons if a general election were held tomorrow, according to new seat forecasts from Savanta and Electoral Calculus
The modeling showed that even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would lose the Richmond constituency in Yorkshire.
But polling experts have suggested that the actual outcome in the next general election “could be very different” if Rishi Sunak narrowed the gap between Conservative and Labor polls.
Labor’s former shadow prime minister, Ed Boles, today warned Lord Care of complacency.
He urged Labor leaders to follow the example set by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown for the 1997 general election, and asked Lord Kiel not to initiate government planning himself.
“This is not a real challenge for Labour to win, it is an election that Labour will lose,” Boles told Times Radio.
“It changes Keir Sturmer, Rachel Reeves and the whole team dynamic.”
He said that before the 1997 election, Blair and Brown “never believed that Labor would win”.
“They were never happy about it. I thought I would win.
“And Labor lost that election.
“But that wasn’t what Gordon and Tony allowed themselves to do.”
A multistage regression using Savanta’s post-stratification (MRP) model, conducted in conjunction with election calculations this month, found that 48% of voters said they would support Labor in the general election, and 28% said they would support the Tories. I answered.
Under the model, the SNP would win seven more seats if the general election were held tomorrow.
This leaves Nicola Sturgeon’s party in all but four of Scotland’s 59 Westminster constituencies.
The Liberal Democratic Party also increased its number of lawmakers to 21, the highest level since 2010.
Chris Hopkins, director of political research at Savanta, said this month’s MRP model reflects the collapse of Tory support following the meltdown of Liz Truss’ premiership.
“The last time we unveiled the MRP model, I talked about the polls we gave Labor during their meetings, both on the potential and volatile nature of a 56-seat majority and a 12-point lead.
“Even the most optimistic Labor supporters could not have foreseen what would happen, as the Conservative party collapsed afterwards. It reflects the current positions of the two political parties in the
“But we still need to be careful. Many of the seats that go Labor in this model are still more than 40% likely to stay Conservative, including some seats that are considered ‘red walls’. is shown.
“And while it will have little impact on the overall election outcome, if Rishi Sunak can continue to narrow Labor’s lead point by point, the actual outcome in 2024 will be significantly different from this nowcast model. It shows that it can be different.”
Conservative MPs fearing losing their seats will be bolstered by another survey (conducted by Deltapol).
Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter said:
“MRP results differ from applying the Unified National Variation (UNS) to the baseline for the 2019 general election.
“UNS estimates the Conservatives have about 24 more seats than in this model.
“Previous elections have typically suggested that the MRP is more accurate than UNS projections, but we are in unknown electoral waters and uncertainties are higher than usual.”
Savanta interviewed 6,237 UK adults online from 2 to 5 December and data were compiled into multiple regression and post-stratification (MRP) models by Electoral Calculus.
Deltapoll surveyed 1,088 UK adults between 9th and 12th December.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11533315/Shock-new-poll-suggests-Labour-win-314-seat-majority-Tories-left-just-69-MPs.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490 A shocking new poll suggests Labor has won a majority of 314 seats, leaving the Tories with just 69 seats.