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Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated significantly, with both nations seemingly on the brink of a regional conflict in the Middle East.

On Tuesday, Iran executed a two-wave ballistic missile attack in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Despite launching 180 missiles, reports indicate that the Israeli army successfully intercepted most of them, resulting in no casualties. Iran claimed its strikes were aimed at three military bases near Tel Aviv.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly vowed to retaliate, asserting that Iran “made a big mistake and will pay,” while the U.S. voiced its support for Israel. President Joe Biden emphasized, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel,” and indicated discussions were underway regarding a response to the attack.

The question now is how Israel will respond to Iran. The region is in a precarious position, awaiting a decision on whether Israel will seek to de-escalate or confront its adversary with U.S. backing.

Marc Owen Jones, an analyst at Northwestern University in Qatar, pointed out that while Iran’s missile attack was measured to avoid escalation, Israel’s response remains unpredictable. He noted that Iran aimed to reassert deterrence, as it could not appear weak amidst Israeli assaults on its allies.

Reports suggest that the U.S. alerted Israel about the impending attack, enabling the interception of the missiles and drones. Thus, the sophistication of Iran’s weaponry may be viewed more as a “symbolic effort,” according to Jones.

Given the limited damage from the attack, Israel could opt for a restrained response similar to its actions in April when Iran launched its first-ever strike on Israeli soil. In retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Iran had launched around 120 ballistic missiles and 170 drones, resulting in minor damage to a military base in southern Israel. Following that incident, Israel targeted an airbase in Isfahan, damaging part of an S-300 long-range air defense system.

However, the scale of Iran’s recent missile attack, which succeeded in penetrating Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, may necessitate a more severe response from Israel to establish its own deterrence, as noted by Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London.

If Israel opts for a more aggressive approach, it could mark a significant shift from decades of indirect conflict, potentially leading to direct confrontation with Iranian forces and their allies, including the U.S.

What potential targets could Israel strike? Public statements from Israeli officials indicate that all options are being considered. This may include attacks on nuclear and oil production facilities, targeted killings of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and precise strikes on military assets.

Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari asserted that Israel would respond “wherever, whenever, and however we choose.” Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for a decisive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, stating, “We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program… We have the justification. We have the tools.”

Key targets within Iran’s nuclear program include the Natanz uranium enrichment complex and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. However, striking these facilities in response to an attack that caused minimal damage may be perceived as excessive. Additionally, such actions could backfire, accelerating Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

President Biden has stated he would not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Krieg noted that many of Iran’s nuclear facilities are deeply buried, making them difficult for Israel to reach via air strikes.

Alternatively, Israel could target oil fields, which are less protected than nuclear facilities. Hitting Iran’s oil sector could exert pressure on the Iranian government amid rising domestic unrest over economic hardships. However, Krieg expressed skepticism regarding the global community’s acceptance of such actions, especially considering Iran’s recent military strikes.

Israel may also focus on Iranian naval bases and naval assets linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Tehran and the port city of Bandar-e Bushehr, which is critical for Iran’s energy infrastructure, could be significant targets.

Moreover, Israel might continue its pattern of targeted assassinations against Iranian leaders, similar to its actions against Hezbollah. Reports indicate heightened security for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Nasrallah’s death, as Iran conducts thorough investigations of personnel within the IRGC.

Despite the potential for escalation, Iran has cautioned Israel against retaliating. General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, warned that the IRGC is ready to repeat missile strikes with “multiplied intensity” if Israel responds to its territory. He cautioned that Iran has avoided targeting Israeli civilians thus far, but could reconsider this strategy if provoked.