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With the autumn term under way, one of the biggest pressures on London schools is not too many pupils, but too few.
What the forecast says
London Councils, which represents the capital’s 32 boroughs and the City, published a report in February 2026 based on School Capacity Survey data from every borough. It forecasts that demand for Year 7 places will fall by 3.8% and reception places by 2.5% between 2025/26 and 2029/30.
Inner London faces the sharpest drop, with Year 7 demand forecast to fall 7.6% and reception demand 6.4%.
Why it matters for funding
Schools in England are funded per pupil, so fewer pupils means less money. London Councils estimates the decline would cost London schools around £45m over the period, about £15m for primary and £30m for secondary.
It says falling rolls have already contributed to roughly 90 school closures or mergers across London in the past five years. It warns that continued declines could mean narrower curriculums, fewer extra-curricular activities and fewer support services.
Where the fall has been steepest
Analysis by the Education Policy Institute (October 2025) found that nine of the ten local authorities with the biggest primary pupil declines over five years were in London. Westminster had the largest fall, at 15.9%.
Not every borough is shrinking. London Councils has previously told a House of Lords inquiry that boroughs including Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Brent, Ealing, Hounslow and Barnet have seen pupil numbers rise.
What London Councils wants
The group is asking the Government for sustainable funding that reflects London’s circumstances. It also wants core funding adjusted using the January school census, so schools taking pupils mid-year, including children with special educational needs and disabilities, are funded more quickly.
What parents can do
Check your council’s school place plan and any open consultations, which often set out proposed changes to admission numbers, mergers or closures. If you have a child at a school in an area of falling numbers, ask the head teacher how budgets and class sizes are being managed.
Sources:
- London Councils, Sharp decline in London pupil numbers puts school standards at risk (Feb 2026): https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/news-and-press-releases/2026/sharp-decline-london-pupil-numbers-puts-school-standards-risk
- LocalGov, London schools face losing £45m as pupil numbers plunge: https://www.localgov.co.uk/London-schools-face-loosing-45m-as-pupil-numbers-plunge/63794
- Education Policy Institute, So Long, London (Oct 2025): https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/so-long-london-an-analysis-of-london-primary-pupil-movements/
