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No, Boris Johnson has no intention of returning to politics as mayor of London or anything like that.

I I didn’t mean to write about boris johnson I think again it’s over for him. His attempts to persuade the public to turn to him again, aided by the few remaining supporters, should not be taken seriously. It distracts from almost all other more important matters.

However, while talking to a savvy political analyst, I realized that Johnson was a zombie politician. just kept coming In a hail of bullets, “I don’t know how he’ll do it, but he’ll find a way.” .

The first obstacle to Johnson’s comeback is his inability support among parliamentarians And never will. In fact, for most of his career, his support within the Conservative Party was volatile. See how quickly he withdrew from the 2016 leadership contest after Michael Gove challenged him.

He became Prime Minister in 2019 simply because the Conservative Party was on the brink of extinction if he did not get Brexit, and he possessed the extraordinary qualities needed at the time to give the Conservative Party a chance. because he was the only person with As Rishi Sunak, Robert Jenrick and Oliver Dowden argued, “we are in deep peril.” “We believe there’s only one logical answer for him: Boris Johnson.”

It worked, but it doesn’t work again. Even after Mr Johnson was forced to resign and Liz Truss’ government collapsed, there are still 110 Conservative MPs (nearly one-third of the ) was amazing. . (We know this because Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Commission overseeing the election of the party leader, made it clear four months later.)

But it also proved not enough, as the remaining two-thirds were against him and, as he admitted, “you cannot govern effectively without a united party in parliament.” was

Now he knows the number of his supporters has dwindled so much that he urged them not to vote against Monday’s Privileges Committee report. Because then it becomes clear how few his followers are. A total of eight have made his defense public. Even if three times as many people voted against the report — even if they weren’t interested in Mr Johnson, some might have thought the committee was overly indignant — it was for the former prime minister ( further) would be humiliating.

So there could be some procedural fun and games on Monday as Labor MPs try to annoy Johnson by forcing a split where no MPs vote against the report. Generally, if a motion is unopposed, it is passed without counting the votes.

But enough Labor and SNP parliamentarians to yell “no” when chairman Sir Lindsay Hoyle asks for an opinion, could be divisive. This would require two Labor or other opposition MPs to volunteer as voters (although it’s now done electronically, so they just need to monitor). Lord Lindsay may not permit such overt manipulation of the Commons Rules, but he does have some discretion over the extent to which he is selectively deaf.

The only reason Johnson was investigated by the Privileges Committee in the first place, even though he pretended to be stitched in by “very few” members of parliament, was that he was not investigated as prime minister last April. You will remember that it is only He dared not put the Labor motion to approve the inquiry to a vote, and was approved with a “yes” vote.

In other words, even if we were in the Commons, we couldn’t go back. It’s going to be harder now that he’s gone, and it won’t get any easier with time. To return, he will need to secure election as a formal Conservative candidate in a safe seat. That won’t happen in the impending by-election or general election.

Even if a local association could be found seeking Mr Johnson — and only one-fifth of Conservative Party members insist he should be reinstated as prime minister — the Privileges Committee report said Mr Johnson would not run the party. Mr. Sunak will block Mr. Johnson on the grounds that it means leading to a catastrophe. bad reputation.

The grassroots movement to bring back Boris is largely a checkbook fantasy of Lord Cruddas, so the next parliament will not see a wave of Conservative MPs elected for Borisoratory. Lord Crudas, who was ennobled by Johnson against the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Committee, the Conservative Democratic Organization he helped found, and the rest of the caravan move on.

So the loser’s story about bidding is London Mayor job. But the second obstacle to Mr Johnson’s return, second only to the lack of lawmakers willing to support him in Congress, is the lack of voters in Congress and elsewhere who want Mr Johnson back. Whether it’s London or the red wall.

A new early voting system Mayor In the case of London, it increases the chances of dooming the candidate. The Conservative government, perhaps in search of party political supremacy, changed the rules from allowing people to vote first and second to a simple “Most Popular” system used to elect members of Parliament. .

If Johnson were to run as an independent, the chances of a Conservative candidate would skyrocket, and he could even come second, but Johnson would be hard-pressed to win — Jeremy Corbyn, for example, on the other side as an independent. (I don’t think he will either for similar reasons). Paradoxically, given that post-first elections make it harder for small parties to break through in parliamentary elections, it makes it easier for independent parties to advance to single elected posts such as mayoral elections.

But Johnson isn’t going to do that. The risk of losing the election and the post he previously held is too great. London is even more of a Labor city than it was when he was mayor. And when he left to lead the secession movement, it was a Remain city.

Boris Johnson has a lucrative twilight career awaiting him as a light-hearted essayist offering weight loss tips, but his political career began after he fell down in a hail of bullets. , will not respawn like a zombie. No, Boris Johnson has no intention of returning to politics as mayor of London or anything like that.

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